OPINION: 'A lot of water under the bridge since the triumph of Murphy and Ahearn in 2019'
This is the third of Darren Hassett's articles on the Tipperary Local Elections 2024
TIPPERARY’S LARGEST TOWN...
Fine Gael took two seats in Clonmel five years ago and they were big hitters in Garret Ahearn - a first-time councillor and candidate in the 2020 General Election and now a Senator.
Meanwhile, Fine Gael’s Michael Murphy topped the poll with 2,102 votes and he elected Ahearn - who secured 1,356 votes and was elected on the third count with the help of Murphy’s and Siobhán Ambrose’s transfers.
Any General Election candidate for most rural constituencies would look at the vote secured by Ahearn in 2020 and think he was hard done by in not being elected to Dáil Éireann.
It’s hard to believe someone could secure 11,499 votes and not be elected a TD - but that’s Tipperary.
The recent selection convention for Fine Gael’s General Election ticket would suggest all is not well within the party and among its grassroots with Michael Murphy chosen as the candidate ahead of Garret Ahern by party members in Tipperary for the next General Election.
Considering Ahearn’s performance in 2020, that was certainly a shock decision and perhaps a message to party HQ?
What that message was, I have no idea. Buoyed by his nod by the party for the General Election - and his poll-topping success in 2019 - anything other than a Michael Murphy re-election to the council in 2024 would be a shock.
The big question for Fine Gael will be how will auctioneer John Fitzgerald get on - he was co-opted to Ahearn’s seat on Tipperary County Council following Garret’s election to the Seanad during the five-year term of the council.
Two seats for Fine Gael are a possibility again in this Local Election in Clonmel with strong, high-profile candidates running in the LEA.
If Murphy is a certainty then so is Fianna Fáil’s Siobhán Ambrose. Murphy only edged her in 2019 by 2,102 votes to 2,031.
The third seat went to the Workers and Unemployed Action Group candidate Pat English on 1,599. With Garret Ahearn taking the fourth seat and Independent Richie Molloy taking the fifth.
Given the declared candidates it’s really hard to see any change in that order, with John Fitzgerald likely slotting into the fourth seat where Garret was.
The real battle is for the sixth seat unless the Sinn Féin vote is absolutely enormous.
Catherine Carey of Sinn Féin only managed 898 last time around to finish outside the running in seventh, but that was also a disastrous Local Election for the party and most likely part of a wider trend in how the vote went.
Clonmel LEA is certainly one to watch and if Sinn Féin are taking the third, fourth or fifth seat, then something has shifted.