Irish aviation regulator proposes 25.2 million summer seat cap at Dublin Airport

Ireland’s aviation regulator has proposed limiting capacity at Dublin Airport next summer to 25.2 million seats.

It comes amid a long-running dispute about whether to lift a passenger cap at the airport, which is being considered by a local authority.

Ireland’s busiest airport is allowed to fly through a maximum of 32 million passengers a year based on planning conditions from 15 years ago.

Airlines have called for the cap to be lifted to meet demand and senior ministers have said the limit is a risk to economic growth and connectivity to the island, while others have questioned the impact of removing the restriction as Ireland aims to reduce its carbon emissions.

The limit was originally brought in during planning permission for the airport’s second terminal in 2007, over concerns about traffic around the airport.

The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) said on Thursday that to take this into account, it was proposing a limit of 25.2 million seats for the summer season next year.

The summer scheduling season runs from March 30 to October 25 2025.

For the winter season, from October 26 to March 29 2025, the seat cap is 14.4 million.

The proposal would result in a total seat capacity of 39.6 million across the two seasons.

The IAA said the seat cap was greater than the passenger cap as it took account of expected load factors – such as how many passengers were expected on each flight relative to the total number of seats on the aircraft – and an adjustment for transfer passengers.

“The IAA anticipates that the demand for slots for the summer 2025 scheduling season would significantly exceed the proposed seat cap,” it said.

“In line with the Slot Regulation, air carriers who have operated series of slots (five weeks or longer) in the summer 2024 season would be given priority, on initial co-ordination, in relation to those series for summer 2025.

“However, the IAA anticipates that not all slot series from summer 2024 would be capable of being accommodated within the proposed seat cap.

“In addition, the IAA anticipates that, like winter 2024, this proposal would result in very little, if any, available capacity for new slot requests, or for ad hoc slot requests, for passenger flights using the capacity of Terminal 1 or Terminal 2 during the summer 2025 scheduling season.

“Such an outcome, and its implications for airlines, Dublin Airport and the travelling public flows as a consequence of the planning condition itself.”

The IAA said its role did not encompass any power to amend or revoke planning conditions, or any decision to or not to enforce conditions, which were all matters to be determined by the planning authorities.

The operator of Dublin Airport, DAA, has itself warned that it is on course to breach the cap this year – with passenger numbers expected to be closer to 33 million.

It has asked planning authorities to lift the cap.

Junior transport minister James Lawless met Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary this week, who has been vocal in his criticism of the passenger cap and has called on the Government to intervene to lift it, but ministers have repeatedly said that they cannot intervene.