ANALYSIS: What way will the pendulum swing for Sinn Féin in the Tipperary Local Elections?
More than five seats being secured for Sinn Féin across the eight LEAs - given the profile of some of the other seven candidates in the Premier County - would suggest a seismic shift amongst the Tipperary voting public.
What way will the pendulum swing for Sinn Féin?
Politics can be fickle and the public vote can be mercurial.
It’s hard to believe that Martin Browne lost his council seat in 2019 and could just manage 818 votes but went on to become a Tipperary TD in 2020 - with over 14,000 votes - as part of a wider and nationwide voter swing towards Sinn Féin.
The party is running eleven candidates across the eight LEAs in 2024.
They are running the untested Cathal Ó Heana in Cahir where ten candidates are fighting for four seats.
In this one, Fianna Fáil will be glad outgoing councillor Michéal Anglim did a U-turn on his decision to step away from local politics as he is likely to retain his seat.
Then there’s outgoing councillors Andy Moloney (the poll-topper in the LEA last time around with 1,855 votes) and Máirín McGrath - who was 21-years-old when elected in 2019 and has put in a solid shift as a local representative and also has the weight of the south Tipperary TD Mattie McGrath political machine behind her.
Both Moloney and McGrath look like strong prospects to retain their seats and Anglim and Marie Murphy (Fine Gael) will be hard to beat.
Sinn Féin could struggle to steal one here. But the party’s David Dunne looks a certainty in the Carrick-on-Suir LEA with seven vying for five seats; as does former General Election candidate Imelda Goldsboro for Fianna Fáil (elected on the first count with 1,980 votes and 671 more than she polled in 2014).
While David Dunne came in behind her on 1,577. Fine Gael seem to have resigned themselves to one seat in Carrick, after losing their second in 2019 following the defeat of Louise McLoughlin.
This time around, the party is only running Mark Fitzgerald, in the hope he can retain his seat. Anyway, back to Sinn Féin. Ultimately, the party is coming from a low base in the Premier County.
They had five councillors elected in 2014 and they were reduced to just two seats in the 2019 Local Elections.
With new Sinn Féin candidate Annemarie Ryan “Shiner” (who ran as an Independent in 2019) and Tony Black likely to win one seat each, the support for them and their important transfers, along with how Molly Browne performs, will be the weather vane for the Sinn Féin vote in Tipperary.
In the Clonmel LEA, where eleven candidates are fighting over six seats, Sinn Féin run Natasha Dingivan and Dean McGrath - both of whom are untested in elections but will be vying for Independent candidate Niall Dennehy’s seat no doubt after Dennehy ousted then sitting councillor, Catherine Carey of Sinn Féin for the final seat in 2019.
In the Nenagh LEA, with eight vying for five seats, the party is running tutor and musician Damian O’Donoghue. He garnered only 518 votes in 2019 - a long way away from poll-topper Joe Hannigan (Independent) on 2,113 votes and from Seamus Morris - who took the fourth seat on count seven on 1,675 votes.
In Newport, with seven vying for four seats, the party is running teacher Gavin Ryan - who wasn’t on the ticket in 2019 when Teresa Collins only managed 177 votes - compared to the poll-topper for that LEA, who was Labour’s Fiona Bonfield on 2,126 votes. But the Independent John “Rocky” McGrath not running could see a swell in Sinn Féin support this time.
Meanwhile, in RoscreaTemplemore there’s Brendan O Conchuir and in Thurles there’s customer assistant Dan Harty for Sinn Féin.
Out of this list of candidates, and with the party running eleven prospects - Sinn Féin ran ten candidates in the 2019 Local Elections - it looks like the party can secure at least three seats through David Dunne, Tony Black and Annemarie Ryan “Shiner” and possibly a fourth in Molly Browne, if her father’s General Election support in 2020 runs into the Local Elections.
There’s also the chance of a fifth in the Clonmel LEA.
The rest is in the hands of the voting public and whatever way the wind will blow on June 7.
More than five seats being secured for Sinn Féin across the eight LEAs - given the profile of some of the other seven candidates in the Premier County - would suggest a seismic shift amongst the Tipperary voting public.