Tipperary Star Editorial Comment: General Election looming?

The prospects of a General Election before the end of the year took a step closer this week with the news that Gardai have sent a file to the Director of Public Prosecutions following a detailed and exhaustive investigation into the alleged passing of confidential files by Tánaiste Leo Varadkar to a GP friend.

Though he has apologised for his actions, Minister Varadkar, who is due to take on the role of Taoiseach for the second time in December, insists that he did not do anything wrong and protests his innocence - why apologise then, one might wonder?
The DPP is now examining that file before deciding whether or not to proceed with a prosecution against Mr Varadkar. And, therein lies the problem for the government, the coalition partners, Fine Gael and the Tánaiste himself.

The office of the DPP will take its time in its deliberations. This is one of the most independent bodies in the land and it will not be swayed by any attempts to promote a sense of urgency in making this very important decision - and very important it most certainly is. The future of the current government may hinge on that decision and the futures of many political careers may also be significantly altered by the outcome.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar faces an anxious few months awaiting the DPP's decision on whether or not to profer charges on him.

Were Mr Varadkar to be sent forward for trial prior to the handover of the most powerful office in the land - ie Taoiseach - it would seem impossible for the coalition parties to back a candidate who would be facing a trial on corruption charges. The optics would be appalling and while they might just be marginally better, were the DPP’s decision not to be known by December, the axe would still be hanging over the neck of the Tánaiste - could Michéal Martin and Eamon Ryan really continue to have confidence and faith in him?

Of course, one should always be entitled to be regarded as innocent until proven guilty and this should also be the case of Mr Varadkar, no matter what office he holds. But, this debacle leaves him, Fine Gael, the coalition partners and the government in a very difficult position.

Surely Fianna Fáil and the Greens would be forgiven for pulling the plug on their programme for government considering the events. That this mess has the potential to bring down the government should not be dismissed. Nor should the suggestion that a new leader of Fine Gael, and therefore a new Taoiseach could be on the agenda were the cards to fall in a particular way.

Can Michéal Martin and Fianna Fail afford to stand by the Tánaiste if he is charged?

So, despite much speculation as to who will succeed Michéal Martin as leader of Fianna Fáil, a scenario could well play out where the current Taoiseach will outlast the intended, as leader of their respective parties. But, who would assume the role of Fine Gael leader should Mr Varadkar find himself impaled on his sword - Pascal O’Donohue? Simon Coveney? Simon Harris? Helen McEntee? Or here’s a curve ball- how about the very influential and politically astute Phil Hogan?

There will be a lot of manoeuvring, positioning and sweating in the corridors of power over the coming months. It will be watched and monitored very closely because the outcome of the DPP’s deliberations will have a huge effect on the future and direction of the country.