Coalition are tipped by bookies to resurface after the Irish general election

A coalition made up of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Independents has emerged as the most likely outcome after the general election according to odds of even money at BoyleSports.

Simon Harris has confirmed plans for voters to hit the polling stations on Friday 29^th November and a betting shift in recent months means he is set to hit the campaign trail as favourite to stay on as Taoiseach after the votes are counted.

The Fine Gael leader is the 8/15 favourite to hold onto his position on the other side of the election, with Micheál Martin (15/8) and Mary Lou McDonald (6/1) now rated underdogs according to the oddsmakers. McDonald had been a 1/2 favourite earlier this year, but a reversal of fortunes in recent opinion polls has put her party on the back foot according to the betting trends.

Sinn Féin had started the year as hot 1/8 favourites to return with most seats, but they have now drifted to 4/1, while Fine Gael (8/15) and Fianna Fáil (2/1) are now considered more likely to top the seat count come the end of the month. 

The odds suggest the best chance of Sinn Féin entering government comes via a post-election deal with Fianna Fáil and Independent TDs, a prospect priced up at 8/1.

The political future of Micheál Martin is already a subject of speculation amongst Irish punters depending on the results, as the Tánaiste has been backed into 7/2 favourite to succeed Michael D. Higgins in Áras an Uachtaráin when his second term comes to an end next year.

Lawrence Lyons, spokesperson for BoyleSports said: “The early betting puts Fine Gael in pole position for most seats, so Simon Harris will be hoping there is no omen in the heavy defeat for his namesake in the United States. But we’ve seen how election campaigns can quickly change the picture and we await the twists and turns before polling booths open.”

Government After Next General Election

EVS       FG/FF/Ind 

4/1         FG Minority

7/1         FF Minority

8/1         SF/FF/Ind

10/1       FG/FF/Lab

10/1       SF/FF

10/1       SF/Lab/Soc Dems/PBP/Green/Ind

Most Seats At Next Irish General Election

8/15      Fine Gael

2/1        Fianna Fáil

4/1        Sinn Féin

Taoiseach After Next Election

8/15       Simon Harris

15/8       Micheál Martin

6/1         Mary Lou McDonald