COMMENT: Jackie Cahill, from a ‘fresh voice’ to steady hand

Even with all of our polls and surveys, analysis and speculation, elections always prove elusive.

It is tough to measure people in numbers and impossible to predict the future. And, nobody would have predicted the latest departure from the Fianna Fáil party. 

But, life will always get in the way. 

This week Jackie Cahill announced that on medical advice, he would not be contesting the upcoming General Election.

In a statement this week he said: 

“I am a lifelong supporter of Fianna Fáil, and I am immensely proud of our party’s historic role in shaping our country.

“It has been a privilege to be a Fianna Fáil TD and to work every day on behalf of the people that I have been elected to represent.”

Deputy Cahill was elected to Tipperary County Council in 2014 on the 12th count and with 1,097 first preference votes in the Thurles-Roscrea District. 

He campaigned on the slogan: “A fresh voice, a new approach,” which worked for the electorate.  

Deputy Cahill was one of four Fianna Fáil candidates to take a seat alongside Seamus Hanafin, John Hogan and Michael Smith. 

At the time, Fianna Fáil still suffered from the drop in public support following the recession. 

So, for a newcomer like Jackie Cahill, this was quite an achievement. But not one he rested on. 

The Thurles councillor was elected to Dáil Éireann in the 2016 General Election, again as a first-time candidate.

Deputy Cahill received 24% of first-time votes and was elected to the third seat from transfers from party colleagues Siobhán Ambrose and Michael Smith.

His election opened the door for Sean Ryan - who was co-opted onto Tipperary County Council and has since retained his seat. 

Throughout his career in public service, Deputy Cahill has advocated for issues both local and national. 

With an agricultural background, he has been an advocate for farmers especially, serving as chairman of the National Dairy Council, president of the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers Association (ICMSA) and a member of many other boards. Jackie Cahill is the current Cathaoirleach for the Joint Committee on Agriculture, Food and the Marine. 

And, of course just this year, in a proud moment for the Cahill family, Jackie’s sister Kay Cahill-Skehan was elected to the council in the Thurles LEA. 

As one political career ends, another begins and if the local election is anything to go by, Tipp keeps its representation in the family.

WHAT NOW?

Of course, the upcoming General Election is just weeks away.

In his statement this week, Deputy Cahill said that Fianna Fáil headquarters is to recommence with the candidate selection process.

The Government leaders met on Monday night and we know the General Election will be before the end of the year, most likely by the end of next month.

And the next question on everyone’s lips will be if not Jackie, then who?

It is perhaps too early for the new Cllr Cahill-Skehan who took her seat just months ago to put her name in the hat, if that is a goal of hers at all. 

The same can be said for Parliamentary Aid Ryan O’Meara in Nenagh. 

But, if you want to sell a good story, newcomers have a certain appeal. There won’t be a lot of time for a successor and there likely won’t be any surprises. 

Fianna Fáil currently holds ten seats on the council. In the north of the county are John Carroll, Kay Cahill Skehan, Michael Smith, Ryan O’Meara, and Sean Ryan. 

Cllr Imelda Goldsboro is already on the ballot for the South Tipp constituency so what of North Tipperary and northwest Kilkenny? 

Perhaps there are some hints to glean from June’s Local Election.

Back then, Michael Smith topped the poll in Roscrea-Templemore. 

He has the experience on the council and popularity despite not being elected in 2016.  Cllr Sean Ryan is also very popular having been re-elected on the first count this year.

Both could keep the Fianna Fáil seat for the north but then, perhaps the answers lie in north-west Kilkenny. 
Jackie Cahill first campaigned for council on a platform of a voice for change.

And, that is currently the call for Sinn Féin, Independents and smaller parties. It would be an interesting parallel should the Fianna Fáil starwalt open the door for a new candidate in a different smaller party.

Though that is unlikely to be Sinn Féin’s given their drop in support, a comfort I suppose to the Fianna Fáil party on a sad day.

But elections are elusive and unpredictable beasts. 

And these are strange times indeed.