Intrigue and opportunity on offer in redrawn Tipperary South

The return of the Tipperary South constituency will bring with it more opportunity for candidates and their parties with the three-seater providing greater potential for success.

The fact that opportunities were so restricted for ambitious politicians based in the south of the county because of the old one-county constituency boundary is reflected among the twelve candidates now running for seats in the new Tipperary South.
Just three out of the twelve candidates have experienced representing Tipperary in the Dáil, Mattie McGrath, Martin Browne, and former TD, Seamus Healy.

Another two candidates, Cllr Michael Murphy (2011) of Fine Gael and Cllr Imelda Goldsboro (2020) of Fianna Fáil have already contested General Elections for their respective parties, both turning in solid electoral performances on the solitary occasion they stood.

Having accompanied would-be TDs on the doorstep and spoken to councillors and voters since the election was called there seems to be an expectation that two of the seats are accounted for while an almighty battle is raging among the candidates to secure that third seat which is now available.

Mattie McGrath and Cllr Michael Murphy appear to be everybody’s favourite to take those first two seats.
McGrath is the most likely to top the poll.

Political opponents hoping to see some weakness in the McGrath machine were given their answer by the performance of his daughter Máirín McGrath in the Local Elections.
She outgunned Cllr Andy Moloney in the Cahir electoral area with a stunning performance sending out a clear message that the McGrath machine is in good running order.

The Independent candidate will be buoyed by the fact that Fianna Fáil will not be running a Clonmel-based candidate on this occasion. Because of his Fianna Fáil pedigree, Deputy McGrath would naturally take FF votes and transfers from FF candidates and he will expect to make even bigger inroads into the FF vote in the urban area of Clonmel as the FF candidate on this occasion.

Cllr Imelda Goldsboro, does not have a high profile in the town or any track record of representing the people of the town.
It certainly won’t all be very comfortable for Deputy McGrath .

He will be looking over his shoulder at first-time candidate Independent John O’Heney whose inclusion on the ticket will have a major impact on not only Deputy McGrath’s votes in west Tipperary, it will also impact on every other candidate with aspirations of winning a seat.

The Mayor of Clonmel Cllr Michael Murphy will also certainly gain from the fact that FF does not have a candidate from Clonmel in the race.

The FG man has everything going for him. Timing is everything and he has more momentum than any of the other candidates.
Being the sitting Mayor of Clonmel is a big help, as are very impressive back-to-back poll topping Local Election performances, and well-managed FG convention success over Senator Garret Ahearn. He will pick up votes across all political persuasions in Clonmel as many people believe the town needs to have a Government TD and he is seen as the best bet in that regard.

Murphy last ran in a General Election in 2011 when south Tipperary last had three seats. He polled very well on that occasion registering over 5,400 first preferences with his party colleague Tom Hayes winning a seat.
If those candidates maintain their momentum it should see them over the line then all eyes will be on where the third seat will go.

It is an intriguing contest. Is there a seat for a west Tipperary candidate, an area that brings in urban areas of Tipperary Town and Cashel, which has a proud record of electing a TD to the Dáil?
Will there be a seat for a left-leaning candidate with three people vying for that vote, Healy, Browne, and newcomer Michael “Chicken” Brennan ?

Cllr Imelda Goldsboro will also be a contender for that third seat after an outstanding Local Elections performance where she topped the poll for the second time in a row.

EXPLAINER: Some of the key issues in Tipperary ahead of General Election 2024

Polling day is on November 29

She was one of three Fianna Fáil candidates who ran in Tipperary in 2020 when she polled over 4,000 first preference votes and was eliminated after the fifth count.
A hard-working councillor who has consistently delivered for her own area, Cllr Goldsboro can count on that loyalty for another big vote.

She received a huge vote in the Carrick electoral area in the Local Elections but on this occasion, she will have sitting TD Martin Browne and former TD Seamus Healy to contend with in Carrick where both are very strong.
Just how hard the FF party membership comes out to work for her in the other urban areas of Clonmel, Cashel and Tipperary will have an influence on her vote. If Labour’s Michael “Chicken” Brennan is eliminated before her then his transfers could catapult her into the race for the third seat. If Martin Browne is to hold on to his seat he has a major battle on three fronts. First of all he has to contend with where the Sinn Féin party is in the polls nationally compared to where they were in 2020 with the SF surge bringing Browne home ahead of Healy.

He has to come ahead of Healy in first preferences and will strive to outpoll Healy in Carrick and he will also have to ensure that O’Heney does not infiltrate his Cashel stronghold.
Browne was the first Sinn Féin TD to be elected in county Tipperary (north or south in over a century) in 2020 when he polled a massive 10,004 first preference votes and was pushed over the line to win a seat after the eight count by 2,082 transfers he received from Healy.

Of those first preferences for Browne in the last General Election, 4,000 were from north Tipperary. That means if he performs as well and gets 6,000 votes in the south, unlikely given his party standing nationally, then he would have to rely on Healy transfers again.

74-year-old Seamus Healy, however, will be trying to put himself in a position to stay in the race longer than Browne so that he can get the transfers from the SF candidate. A veteran campaigner, Healy believes he has a fighting chance of the seat. He showed resilience to come back from defeat in the 2007 General Election and is giving this battle everything to get back to the Dáil to carry out “unfinished business” in relation to the St Brigid’s District Hospital closure in Carrick and the loss of St Michael’s acute psychiatric unit in Clonmel.

He is hoping for a very strong showing in Carrick. He was pipped by Browne in Carrick in 2020 and he needs to flip that to have a chance of winning that third seat.
A member of Fine Gael less than two years ago and now an Independent candidate, John O’Heney has every chance of being in the mix for that third seat.

He received a remarkable vote in his heartland of Lattin, Cullen, Emly, Kilross, Lisvernane and Bansha in the local elections, and has an efficient team behind him in that area.

To have a chance he has to expand that vote out into Dundrum, Golden, Kilfeacle, and make inroads in the town of Cashel.
He is certainly the dark horse in the race. His presence will cost Michael Murphy Fine Gael votes he would have expected to pick up in west Tipperary while O’Heney will see himself as capable as anybody of picking up votes in the Cashel area at the expense of Martin Browne given the SF standing in the polls.

Like Cllr Goldsboro, Michael “Chicken” Brennan should again get a strong vote in his own area. How he will fare outside of that area is uncertain. The Labour infrastructure in south Tipperary is weak.

He has the task of looking for votes out of the same left gene pool of long-established campaigners Seamus Healy and Martin Browne, and Labour has a long way to go before it can hope to win back a seat held by the party by Michael Ferris and Sean Treacy in the past.

The other five candidates Myriam Madigan (Green Party), Nadaline Webster (Independent) and John McGrath (The National Party), Bill Fitzgerald (Non-Party), Rosemary McGlone (Aontú) will suffer because they each have a low enough profile compared to the other seven candidates in the race to the Dáil.